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The center cannot hold! Product and Geographic contagion will spread as Europe, buoyed by the Dodd Frank initiative in the US, seeks to impose a transparent equities-style market on all types of fixed-income trading markets. With the desire to eliminate regulatory arbitrage opportunities, increasing proportions of electronically executed volumes will soon be seen in cash and related products and, as the cost of trading derivatives increases, flow will be driven to the lower cost futures markets.

This shift of banks from a principal to an agency role will happen quicker than most imagine as Centralized Clearing Counterparties CCPs and Execution Facilities SEFs, MTFs, Regulated Markets are incentivized to make products available to trade quickly, forcing banks to trade these products electronically and transparently.

Margin charges for uncleared trades, currently estimated to be at least three times the charge for cleared trades, will speed the trader en ligne bonus sans depot for electronic trading adoption. Clients will be willing to trade-off structural mismatches via substitute financial products trader en ligne bonus sans depot the higher costs of perfectly hedging their trader en ligne bonus sans depot via a costly unclearable trade.

Increased capital charges, levied trader en ligne bonus sans depot the Basle 3 directive, will make trading of uncleared trades overly prohibitive. The aftershock of these tectonic forces will cause the interdealer markets to cease to exist as we know them. This transparency will drive spreads lower. The impact of these regulations on bank trader en ligne bonus sans depot staff is already evident. Commodities traders have left Goldman Sachs in their droves as they migrate to the less regulatory shackled and better paying hedge funds.

This is just the tip of the iceberg as the exodus of traders looks set to pick up steam, driven by shrinking profits and tighter regulation. Price transparency, fragmented execution venues and decreases in deal size will attract new entrants.

A widening participant base will further promote liquidity, whilst driving profitability lower through decreasing spreads. Once liquid swap benchmarks move to a futures style CLOB, there is no question that high frequency trading will result.

Hedge Funds, whilst benefiting from less severe restrictions than banks, will not get a free ride. Commercial users will also be impacted by the increasing costs of derivative trades, even though they are exempt from mandatory swap execution and clearing requirements and hence initial margin requirementsas dealers will pass on extra charges to end users.

Price, liquidity and transparency will no longer be drivers of order flow to banks. A number of partial offsets in the form of new revenue streams including Collateral transformation, margining and financing are likely to become a more explicit part of the business.

Clearing fees will likely emerge as a material sources of value. From a service perspective, access to capital issuance and content are likely to take a more prominent role as they do today in the equities business.

However these ancillary services will not be sufficient to fully buffer the loss in profitability of the derivatives business.

Many of the leading players are ill equipped to determine the cost of their derivatives business and, hence, understand how profitable their swaps business will be going forward.

This will undoubtedly lead to players underestimating their total swap trading cost basis and result in further erosion of profits. As trading becomes commoditized, consolidation will occur as the top players turn themselves into flow monsters in order to grab economies of scale, squeezing out the mid-tier players. Ironically the same regulations designed to eliminate the too big to fail paradigm may have created one in which many are too small to succeed.

Julian Fisher The center cannot hold!

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